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Sudden onsets in the visual periphery elicit reflexive shifts of covert exogenous spatial attention. Here, we asked: are the behavioral effects of such an irrelevant exogenous cue modulated by implicit knowledge about the probability of the cue’s presence? Participants discriminated the orientation of a visual target that was preceded, on some trials, by an abrupt-onset task-irrelevant disk (exogenous cue). A color at fixation (red or green) signaled the probability that a cue would appear (0.8, “high- probability”, or 0.2, “low-probability”). When presented, this cue flashed briefly in the periphery, either near the target (valid cue) or non-target stimulus (invalid cue, equally likely). We used a speed- accuracy tradeoff (SAT) procedure to vary the time given for participants to process the stimuli before responding. We found that low-probability cues generated significantly larger cueing effects (discrimination accuracy, valid–invalid) than high-probability cues, but only when responses were made early in the accumulation of visual information (i.e., under strict time pressure). Both the directionality and temporal dynamics of these results were replicated across a series of online studies. Thus, expectations about an exogenous cue’s presence or absence have a significant yet transient impact on its ability to direct the reflexive allocation of covert exogenous spatial attention.